The resignation was a stunning admission of defeat for a combative and often stubborn politician who is widely viewed to be deeply involved in running the government led by his wife, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
Combined with their loss of both houses of Congress, Mr. Kirchner’s defeat appears to have dashed any dreams the couple had of extending their political dynasty, and put Argentina’s presidency up for grabs in the 2011 elections.
Analysts said the election results on Sunday would restore some balance to Argentine politics and could increase the country’s credibility with foreign investors. But they also leave Argentina facing continued uncertainty and potential political instability. The opposition remains fractured and the Kirchners will maintain control of Congress until December.
Argentina is teetering on recession and will struggle next year to make payments on billions of dollars in foreign debt, economists said. “There is this impending struggle for the Argentine government to make any of its payments and meet its populist promises, while at the same time ensuring the economy can grow,” said Karen Hooper, a Latin American analyst for Stratfor, a Texas-based global intelligence company.
The election became a referendum on the couple’s leadership. Mr. Kirchner ran for the lower house of Congress in a bid to resuscitate the flagging administration of his wife, who has struggled to muster more than a 30 percent approval rating in opinion polls since taking over in December 2007.
But Mr. Kirchner’s gamble to run in Buenos Aires Province, the country’s most populated, backfired when he narrowly lost a high-profile race against a millionaire businessman, Francisco de Narváez, a congressman from a rival faction within the Kirchners’ Peronist Party.
In the end, not only were the Kirchners swept in the major provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza, but they even lost in Mr. Kirchner’s home state, Santa Cruz. Nationally, they won just 29.6 percent of the vote, less than most analysts had predicted.
“Néstor Kirchner just died politically,” said Elisa Carrió, a longtime opposition leader who ran against Mrs. Kirchner for president in 2007.
Mr. Kirchner was replaced as party leader by Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires.
Mrs. Kirchner played down the loss in a rare news conference on Monday, saying it meant that she would have to compromise with other parties, a reality she said she was prepared to accept. She also rejected suggestions that she would resign, reminding reporters several times that the defeat was “in Buenos Aires Province,” and not necessarily throughout the country, a position seemingly at odds with the nationwide results.
Nor did she plan to shake up her cabinet. Earlier in the day, Health Minister Graciela Ocaña resigned over the government’s swine flu policies. Mrs. Kirchner said she did not expect any further cabinet changes.
The president dismissed the idea that the government needed to reform the official statistics agency, which has been criticized by economists for more than two years for producing unreliable figures on inflation and other indicators.
The big winners on Sunday included Carlos Reutemann, the former governor of Santa Fe Province, who split off from the Kirchners to become a dissident Peronist; Julio Cobos, the vice president who defied Mrs. Kirchner by casting a deciding vote against her agricultural tax; and Mauricio Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires. All three are now strong contenders for president in 2011, analysts said.
The Kirchners’ leadership style, which critics describe as authoritarian and erratic, has been blamed for severe capital flight from the country and a sharp decline in foreign investment. Those tendencies, even more than Mrs. Kirchner’s controversial moves to nationalize Aerolíneas Argentinas, and take over billions of dollars in private pension funds, turned voters against the couple, analysts said.
Mr. Kirchner steered the country out of its crushing economic crisis of 2001 at a time when his tough talk and stubbornness, like refusing to negotiate with bondholders over billions of dollars in debt, played well with Argentines, who were yearning for a strong leader.
Mrs. Kirchner vowed to continue her husband’s economic policies while looking to heal the rift with the opposition and open Argentina to foreign investment and a more prominent global role. But she soon became embroiled in a protracted battle with farmers over higher taxes on agricultural exports. The conflict “revealed the government’s inability to make an agreement,” said Graciela Römer, a political analyst here. “Her frustration in not being able to achieve her goals exaggerated her authoritarian personality traits.”
The farm crisis also appeared to have benefited opposition parties in Congress on Sunday. “The people showed they want a Congress that debates more, that finds a way to reach consensus,” Mr. Reutemann said.
The Kirchners also did poorly in what had been considered their base, the poorer areas ringing the city of Buenos Aires where Mr. Kirchner spent much of his time campaigning. In all but a few towns in the area, they failed to capture a majority.
They tried to fill the void by forcing dozens of politicians, including Governor Scioli, to support their ticket as “testimonial candidates,” in effect window dressing for the Kirchners’ slate. On Monday, Mr. Scioli became the first such candidate to announce he would not assume a spot in Congress despite having won a seat. Instead, he will remain governor, he said, to help strengthen the Peronist Party.
In an interview last Wednesday, Mr. Scioli said more state intervention in the economy may be needed. But he said making peace with farmers should be the government’s first priority after the election.
“We need to heal the scars we have with rural areas, through dialogue,” he said, “leaving behind the rhetoric and once and for all discussing the issue rationally.”
